2010-04-26

by PokerAnon ~ April 25th, 2010. Filed under: $100nl FR.


Bad time to try to push off a player with a steal rate of 40% over 120 hands ..

Better time to try to steal myself, 2nd hand a a new table.

The guy was pretty nice about it though, he typed “lol, nh.” “nasty flop” and I apologized for my luck.

Next hand I wasn’t involved, but I post it for another example of how bad the play can be at $100nl.

Overall now 671 hands, 13.1/10.4, Aggr 1.56/34%, PfPA 6.7, 3 bet 3.4, steal 33%, WTSD 41, W$SD 60. Sorta decent stats. 7.03 bb/100 which I should be more than happy with, but it’s kind of a downer after my run good period. But when I 6-table I’d almost have this many hands in one session.

If I had the chance to replay the period so far, or change my play given what (little) I have now gained in experience, it would be to not tone down my aggression from $25nl, particularly in the area of 3 betting. I think I can re-establish some of my 3 betting from the blinds, mixed with more calling and not always only using the 3bet/fold as options. I’ve yet to suspect anyone of 4 betting light. The aggression does not seem higher at $100nl, except by subtraction. That is to say, there is less passive limping preflop, less limp/calling, less weird tiny bet sizing post flop. So overall the aggression level may be higher, but mostly by eliminating the weak/passive area rather than by increasing the top end noticeably.

Two things I have not tried adding back in yet is the occasional trap by not 3betting with AA/KK, though maybe I haven’t had situations for it yet, and also open raising 77 and down from early positions. I don’t know that these are going to be useful plays at $100nl

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One question I still don’t have an answer to is how worthwhile it even is for a casual player like me to consider playing $100nl FR. The reason for the question is that there are tons of grinders at that level, playing 100,000s of hands and earning money by the PokerStars rewards rather than by win rates. Since I’m never going to grind that quantity of hands, my bb/100 has to be the reason that I play, meaning I’m going to need to have a win rate better than most of the players who are playing 150,000 hands per month and the like in order for it to be worthwhile for me. Is that gonna happen?

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Note: I’m developing some of what happened in the fall when I was crushing $25nl for a month or so. I’m starting to become afraid to play, simply because I’m afraid to decrease my win rate.

Back then it was a ridiculous +20bb (10BB)/100 that I was consistently beating $25nl, and after a while I simply became afraid to even play because I might decrease the win rate. Now I’ve run good, run bad over a very short number of hands, though a number of hours because I’m mostly single tabling, and then run fine. So now I’m really starting to feel that same fear again. Being afraid to play, for fear of decreasing my overall win rate. What do I do about that?

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