by PokerAnon ~ June 1st, 2009. Filed under: Non-playing grind posts.

From my previous post: “Third hand, same guy, AA UTG, raising slightly less looking for some action. He flats. Flop is not very good, hits his range much much more than mine, but I opt to bet in case he’s missed as well. If I get raised, I’m done with the hand. He flats, so he could still have a straight, maybe two pair or a pair with a draw. Turn gives me some relief as I’m ahead of two pair so I bet again, to get value if he has two pair and to charge him if he’s drawing still. River only helps if he had a 4, not if he had 78 which seems more likely if he’s drawing so I bet again.”

I want to revisit this thinking. First, “ but I opt to bet in case he’s missed as well.” That’s wrong thinking. If he’s missed, if he’s played AJs, JTs, all kinds of possible hands of big cards that miss this flop, then yes, he probably folds. But if that’s what he holds, then I miss out on getting some money by not allowing him to bluff. This is a general beginner’s strategy, afraid of cards that might come, afraid of not being able to fold if a dangerous card comes, afraid of folding AA to a bluff, especially if a dangerous card comes, plus not being able to give up on AA. But, in this case, the danger of the draws are a bit of an offset to this beginner’s approach.

If he holds 22+, AK, AQs-ATs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 10.4% of hands, this flop results in:

  • 3.8% – straight
  • 8.6% – set
  • 3.8% – two pair
  • 35.2 – overpair
  • 2.9% – top pair
  • 14.3 – OESD
  • 15.2 – gutshot
  • 32.4 – overcards

Hmm, but I don’t see combos, like 88/44 would be an over/underpair with OESD, 99 would be overpair with gutshot, but I can figure that out for myself. 138 hands in total; 6 combinations of each pocket pair so 4.3% for 99, 8.6% for 88/44, same number of card combinations that hit a set. Since I didn’t include 79s/A7s then 78s would be top pair and automatically will have an OESD. TT/JJ only have two outs, and other big cards I dominate if they hit a single pair on the turn or river.

So I’m behind a straight, set, two pair and drawing thin against these hands. That’s 16.2%. I’m mostly in danger of the OESD draws, which is 14.3%. Pocket pairs that might fill a set if I let them draw have only two outs and they could be anything so I don’t concern myself much with that.

He’s not overly aggressive is the problem, but really I should be checking this flop as a default, I think. The draws are dangerous, but against most players I’m ahead and with the exception of the straight draws they are drawing thin. But if he has some of the 32.4% overcards (though again some of these have draws) I’ll get paid off if he hits later, and if he’s willing to bluff. And, by checking at least some streets, I might save money if he want’s to slowplay any of the hands that I’m currently behind.

So I think, although I’m not positive, this by default should be a check/call on the flop. Though because this player is pretty passive (which is why I decided in the earlier hand that I should fold AK when he shoves, and then I misclicked and called) I don’t know if I’m getting much value if he’s missed the flop entirely. Against him I probably check flop and maybe even turn before betting because I’m OOP and he’s passive.

As the turn and river played though I think it’s okay. Once I get the set I was thinking that now I’m ahead of two pair, not even considering that he might have  a set that he either slowplayed or was afraid that I flopped the straight which would be unlikely given that I raised from UTG.

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