Save your money, get out early
by PokerAnon ~ April 15th, 2009. Filed under: General poker strategy, Philosophy and approach.
Maybe this ties into Prospect Theory as well. Prospect Theory says that we tend to hang on too long when things are going badly. I wish my investment adviser had taken this into consideration back in the late fall of 2008.
But we’re talking about poker here, and what I’m referring to is getting out of a hand while it’s cheap.
Cheap is preflop, when it costs you the BB plus the SB divided by the number of players at the table, to be dealt cards. You have K4 suited. Just fold. A King is almost an Ace, but it’s not an Ace. A King will lose, every time, to an Ace when no cards catch the board. An Ace makes a straight possibility with a 4, a King does not. If you pair a 4 on the flop, your hand is still crap. If you pair a King on the flop, your kicker is crap. Just fold.
- Or you have AT in late position, you’re looking forward to stealing the blinds or possibly raising if one of the fishier players limp, but instead a nit raises. Cheaper to fold.
- Or you have AJs, planning to raise, but a decent player ahead open raises from mid. Your hand is right in his range. You could 3bet to fold similar hands, folding if you get reraised, but you also might get in a tough situation if he calls and the flop comes AQ9. If you don’t know how to play AJ in position on an Ace high flop, it might be cheaper to fold now.
- Or you’re in the blind with AQ, tight player raises from mid, loose player raises from late. How much fold equity do you think you have if you try to squeeze? And if you flat, the original raiser can still shove, and even if he flats, your OOP with AQ against two others on the flop.
Cheap is also on the flop. You’ve seen 5/7 of the total cards you will ever see in this hand. Do you need to hang around in the BB with J2 when a Jack is the high card but you’ve got 4 others seeing the flop as well? At best this might be a bet/fold situation, but a check/fold is not out of the question either, especially if you’ve got straight draws or flush draws on the flop, or aggressive players in position behind you who will continue to pressure you and escalate the pot size.
Keep in mind that pots grow exponentially. Because you make bets based on the existing pot size, the bets made on the flop are bigger than are made preflop, on the turn bigger than the flop, and on the river are bigger yet. A J2 on a J98 flop with a flush draw could be expensive to defend against multiple players who may be chasing a straight or flush draw, or you could already be dominated by two pair or a flopped straight.
Cheap may also be giving up on a hand even after raising preflop. You raise TT in position, one of the blinds calls. Flop is A94 with a flush draw. Blind checks, you are way behind if he holds an Ace, but are way ahead if he’s missed the flop, and ahead but vulnerable if he’s holding a flush draw. You decide to c-bet and represent an Ace and charge him if he’s after the flush. He checkraises. You could call, and by doing so, maybe he will check the rest of the way down with some kind of Ace, afraid because maybe you have some kind of Ace as well. On the other hand, maybe it’s cheaper to fold. Your read on the player and your confidence in your own ability to play the rest of the streets will determine what the best play is.
Protect the rest of your stack by getting out before it gets more expensive.
Essentially this is just another take on the “fold more”, “play tight”, ect, type of advice, but sometimes taking it in a slightly different perspective can help.
