Short stack hand review/analysis/stats

by ~ July 29th, 2008. Filed under: General poker strategy, Goals and plans, Super turbos.


* Modified August 8th, 2008 *

I pulled out hands to date from my short stacking games, filtered the ones where I went to showdown, eliminated the check down hands to get the ones where I raised and got all-in.

  • Ahead:20; Equity > 50%: 18
  • Behind: 5; Equity < 50%: 4

Plus one AK vrs 33 and one 99 vrs AJs, basically coinflips, and one KK vrs AKs/AQs/ATs where I quadrupled up.

Where I got in behind I didn’t know that I was behind.

  • In one case he flopped a set of 7s,
  • in another I was ahead on the flop with TPTK and he called my c-bet with middle pair and turned two pair on the turn, only for me to suck out an Ace on the river and beat his two pair with mine
  • KK with K of a monotone board including the Ace, but he had AQ with the Q of the suit and check/called,
  • AQ vrs AA preflop and
  • AK vrs AA preflop where UTG limp/raised AA

The AQ is the only one I might have avoided as I raised and he reraised from mid. I misread him as a short-stack attacker, but with AQ I’m not ahead of very much and should have folded unless I had reason to believe he might have something marginal. The problem is that I don’t get much in the way of reads because of my “hit and run” approach, so unless he’s also a short stacker and my own prejudice against short stackers tells me he could be bad, I otherwise don’t get enough of a read to call/shove this and should have just folded.

My KK’s haven’t run into AA yet, though my AA lost to KK when a K flopped. My QQ’s have been beaten by 99 when a 9 flopped, and by 55 when a runner-runner 4 flush hit, JJ beaten by Q9 when a Q hit, but all these hands after I was already all in when I was ahead.

So what does this tell me? I’m almost never dominated, though I limp/called AJ and AQ in the BB bet a KJ7 flop and then we got it all in when an Ace hit on the turn. If I’m ahead this often when I get it in,

  1. I must be reading things pretty well, combined with the other players either
  2. playng poorly because of my short stack or
  3. because they’re just bad players.

‘Course you can always find something to worry about, so maybe if I’m ahead this often, I’m folding some hands where I would have been ahead. Those are tough though. Those would be hands where I raise, miss the flop, and either get donked into, or there’s multiple callers and gets bet from behind. I’ve missed the flop so I can’t see a good reason to continue, unless they’re ultra-aggressive, and I rarely stay that long to get that kind of read.

The other might be some preflop folds or limps behind limpers. With the 99 vrs AJs hand I figured I’m likely on the plus side of the coin flip so it’s worthwhile to take in a ring situation. It’s possible that I’ve missed some opportunities with 99/88 behind limpers or big aces from the blinds, all situations where I’ve limped rather than raising or maybe shoving over loose raises.

~

I’ve made

  • 21 c-bets that were folded to which got me 127 bbs,
  • 11 that were called are included in the all-ins,
    • 8 of which I won which got me 191.4 bbs and
    • 3 of which I lost which cost 60.8 bbs.
  • I also raised from SB, c-bet and folded twice costing me 14 bbs.
  • Raised PF, fold to flop bet 4 times costing me 16 bbs. Two were steals with crap and in all cases I got donked into
  • I never raised PF and folded the turn or river. Presumably I’ve already done something by that point. One time I checked a very dry flop because I had TPTK and bet the turn instead but he folded.

Those win totals are net of my own investment and the rake.

~

One other thing to note. If I graph total winnings, showdown winnings and non-showdown winnings, total winnings and showdown winnings almost exactly match each other stride for stide, which means that non-showdown winnings is almost flat. I don’t know that that is good since that means that all those PFR and c-bets that weren’t called are just offsetting the folds and folded BBs and SBs.

Since I’m playing rock-ish tight, the blinds are going to hit me more often per flop seen than normal. I don’t have the luxury of calling PFRs with middle pairs or suited connectors hoping for big payoffs, and I’m more hesitant to raise/isolate with marginal holdings without the threat of my stack behind me to make it expensive to limp/chase, unless I have legitimate big hand.

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