Bet the Set on the straight flop for value, and some Reverse Implied Odds

by ~ May 7th, 2008. Filed under: General poker strategy, Micro level poker.

I don’t usually post hand histories in here but there are some interesting things that happened in this hand.

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CO ($38.75)
Hero ($33.35)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Jc, Jd.
1 fold, MPA raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds.

Max buy-in is $25 so I’m up. I raise JJ from UTG +1 (or MP1 as the converter is calling it because the table is 7 handed). CO, who has me covered and has had this since before I sat down at the table, calls.

Flop: ($2.35) Tc, Js, Qs (2 players)
MPA bets $1.5, CO calls $1.50.

Very scary flop but I’ve picked up a set. My immediate concern is he’s got AK for a made straight. Even so, I’ve got outs. Playing at this level and without a good read I feel I have to bet in the event that he has a weak Ace with a gutshot draw, or the spade flush draw. My bet is on the smallish side, possibly I viewed it as a blocking bet if he’s ahead as well as a a value bet to charge him if he’s drawing.

What I didn’t consider at the time is that there’s also a host of other hands that I’m ahead of that probably won’t fold and I can make money from: 99/TT/T9/JT/QJ/KQ/AQ/AJ/AT, possibly in combination with a flush draw. This is something for me to learn; a made straight on the board means there are a lot of straight draws, especially in combination with a pair, that are going to be willing to pay me off to see more cards. They may even semibluff a made straight here with all the outs that they have.

Turn: ($5.35) 7h (2 players).
MPA bets $3, CO calls $3.

Keep charging him in case he’s drawing. He calls, so he has something, making me more suspicious that I’m behind a made straight.

River: ($11.35) Ts (2 players)
MPA bets $6, CO raises to $18, MPA raises to $27.85, CO calls $9.85.

The second Ten gives me a full house so now I’m ahead of a straight. I bet, he raises so I shove and he calls. He was pretty confident with his hand on the river too, probably thinking that I had AK and he was behind a straight from the beginning.

Final Pot: $67.05
Hero has Jc Jd (full house, jacks full of tens).
CO has Qd Th (full house, tens full of queens).

Outcome: Hero wins $67.05.

I didn’t play this brilliantly. I narrowed the villain’s range too tight without seeing a whole range of pair/OESD hands that I should be giving worse odds to. I only got confident when the second Ten hit because I was afraid of AK from the beginning.

The other big thing to point out is the bad situation my opponent was in right from the flop. All because he called with a poor hand for calling a raise, even in position. On the river his play is fine as you can’t fold a full house. Pretty unlucky for him to lose to a higher full house.

But, bad policy to call someone who has a full stack, who hasn’t shown himself to be loose (at least I don’t think I had been playing loose), and who raises from early position, when all you’re holding is QT. This is an awful flop for him because one of the most likely hands for me to be holding is AK and all he has is two pair, and even without me having AK he was behind me right on the flop.

Basically with the preflop call he’s putting his whole stack at risk when he catches the second best hand as he did both on the flop and on the river.

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