This is a hand history from someone who has read my blog and was interested in the poker school post. He had already signed up with Full Tilt so he wasn’t eligible to sign up so that I could get credit, but I said that if he wanted to send me a hand history for review, I‘d send him some comments.

This was an interesting hand, from the mid stages of the sit and go.

Full Tilt, $1.25 Buy-in (40/80 blinds) NL Hold’em Sit’N'Go, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker – http://www.stoxpoker.com/

BTN: 2,000 (25 bb)
SB: 890 (11.1 bb)
BB: 1,340 (16.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): 1,795 (22.4 bb)
MP2: 1,095 (13.7 bb)
MP3: 1,380 (17.3 bb)
CO: 5,000 (62.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Jc Qd - Blinds are rising, hero is UTG. I’d say raise or fold, most likely fold this hand.
Hero calls 80, 3 folds, BTN raises to 240, SB folds, BB calls 160, Hero calls 160 - Hero limps, button raises and the BB calls. Now we’re getting 80 + 240 + 40 + 240 = 760 / 160 or 4.75 / 1 with QJ.

Flop: (760) Jd 8c 9c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,555 and is all-in

Our Hero shoves, overbetting the pot by two times.

~

From our opponent’s view, what’s our most likely holding? Well, this is a $1 SnG, so limping UTG and calling doesn’t cut down our possible holdings too much. When we shove the flop, we’re either representing

1. a big made hand that hopes someone can’t resist calling
2. a weak or moderate hand that is vulnerable and wants to chase everyone off
3. a draw that is semibluffing
4. a total bluff on a scary board

4. seems least likely; at this level people read scary boards as boards with high cards rather than seeing the straight/set/two pair with a suited connector possibilities. A hand with only a T for an OESD that is semibluffing seems like a play from a short stack or a big stack.

In truth we have top pair, with a so-so kicker and the kicker gives us a gut shot draw, in a pot that was raised preflop. We’re sitting between the BB caller who has already checked, with the preflop raiser yet to play.

~

We’re getting called here by two pair, sets, QT or T7 that flopped a straight, hands that we’re behind, though at this level when the button raises he probably doesn’t raise preflop with QT/T7/99/88/98s, and maybe not even JJ. He would however, raise preflop, and now call our shove, with QQ/KK/AA. If he does, we have 4 Ts and 3Qs as outs, and only the Ts if he holds QQ. At a higher buy in, a bet like 400-600 might get a fold from overpairs just because the board hits our range so hard. A check raise would be difficult given the stack sizes, but would be a good play if we want to get money in and we’re pretty sure the button will bet. A overbet like our Hero has done probably gets called from overpairs at a higher level buy in as it looks too much like fear and inexperience.

But the BB checked, and could more likely be playing QT/99/88/98s and slowplaying, a favorite and overused technique at this level of play.

We’re probably also called by JT/T9/T8 who have an OESD with a pair with a straight draw, which either player might hold.The fact that we hold one Q cuts the chances for an OESD to hit because we hold one of his outs.

Now that we’ve shoved, the button can take us out, or we can take him down to 2.5 BBs or so, or, we can take out the BB or be down to 3 BBs ourselves.

~

It’s really hard to go to the next step and do a detailed analysis with percentages because the buy in level makes the percentages of likelihood very hard to gauge. Plus in this case I didn’t follow the other players’ plays up to this point so I have no reads on the opponents.

Here’s some hands that we could be up against, and our equity.

• QT: 10/90 underdog
• T7: 17/83 dog
• AA/KK: 33/66 dog
• 99/88: 18/81 dog
• 98; two pair: 36/63 dog
• AJ/KJ; a better J hand: 30/70 dog
• AcTc combo flush/straight draw: 44/55 dog
• Ac5c flush draw with overcard: 58/42 fav
• Naked T: 73/26 fav
• JT/T9/T8: 68/31 fav
• plus, of course, A8/A9 type hands that have a lower pair, and overcards like AK that missed the flop entirely.

~

Why do we bet, generally speaking?

1. To get value from worse hands than might call.
2. To fold out better hands (turns our hand into a bluff)
3. To protect vulnerable made hands against draws

Let’s consider 2. first. Here the only hands that we might fold out might be AJ/KJ. Any other hand is a big hand and isn’t likely to fold, especially since we showed fear and/or inexperience by shoving and overbetting the pot. Even so I don’t know that AJ/KJ folds here in a $1 SnG.

We do have a vulnerable hand and there are draws out there. I don’t think hands that we beat are calling unless they also hold a draw, like JT/T9/T8 or a flush draw; some people love their flush draws at the low buyin levels. In other words, just a paired 9 or 8 or J with a weaker kicker (why would J6 raise preflop or call a preflop raise?) shouldn’t be calling if we make a 600 bet. A9/A8 are on pretty thin ground as well.

What if we bet 400-600, get called, the turn bricks. We’ve got ~1,200 – 900 remaining with the blinds at 80. Do we bet again? Or call a bet? What if a Q comes, giving us two pair but filling the straight for anyone holding a ten? Or a club, filling a flush? Which draw do we think that our opponent was chasing if they called our flop bet?

I think this, as much as anything, is why our Hero shoves the flop. Harrington talks about “fear of flopping” when people open shove preflop with their good hands when there is no need to do so. They’re afraid of having to make a decision with their AK when the get called and no A or K flops, or when they have QQ/JJ and an Ace flops. The same principle applies here; we have a hand, it’s vulnerable, we don’t want to make any more decisions, shove.

The problem with the fear of flopping move is that we risk all our chips and will likely only be called by hands that we’re likely losing to, and we lose value by only collecting the blinds from hands that might have paid us at least a bit if we had bet less. However, preflop shoves with big hands in the early going can work in a freeroll, super turbo, or low buy in tournament as we can be called by all manner of hands. In our situation here, the pot is decent and there’s only two more streets to go so it’s not directly comparable, but I think the reasoning for the shove is the same.

And because our remaining stack is only twice the pot, and our opponents aren’t in much better shape, any bet and call pretty much pot commits everyone. That’s only in theory though, as I’ve folded with less just because I believed that with 8 BBs or more left I still have a good chance of outplaying my opponents. And I’ve seen players fold with 1 BB remaining after committing 10 or more BBs to a hand at this level.

~

At the time of this writing I’m now inclined to think that the Hero shove is the best play for him, primarily because 1) a 400 – 600 chip bet that is called or raised pot commits us, and 2) any Q or club creates a difficult decision for us. And a T may not get paid off.

In general though, shoving the flop when we have twice the pot and our oppponents have similar stackes loses value as too many potential hands that we beat don’t call this. Other one pair hands that we beat or naked Ts are too likely to fold and those are the hands that we want to stick around. But in this particular setting, against this level of opposition, it just might be the best play.

• Tilt analysis
• In the well
• “Poker For Dummies”: the book becomes a game