Waiting for the NFL preseason

by ~ July 31st, 2008. Filed under: Poker and life.


* Modified August 24th, 2008 *

I don’t know, but to me it seems to be taking a long time for the NFL football preseason to start.

Every year the season itself seems to start later. This year I’m still waiting for the preseason games to start.

Last year’s Super Bowl was a great story, and a great game. The powerful undefeated Patriots, hated by many because of Bill Belichick and because of their success, against the team that actually played their starters and risked their playoff health in the final game of the season in an attempt to end the undefeated regular season. A lot of Super Bowls are not very entertaining games, but the last one was good, which will whet the NFL fan’s appetite for this season.

I don’t bet on individual NFL games very often, but I do often play in office pools and fantasy pools. Years ago, before I got interested in poker, I was very serious with my stats tracking and trying to improve my prognostication spreadsheet, but over the years it’s become too much work for little apparent edge. Then when I do well one week it turns out that it’s because I made an error in my spreadsheet, or alternatively I find an error in my spreadsheet, recalculate the weeks that were affected, and discover I would have had done much better if I hadn’t made the error, so I’m never sure whether my spreadsheet is helping me or not.

Apparently Howard Lerderer, “the Professor” and Full Tilt pro used to make his living betting on sports before he ended up in poker. He and another guy used to have some sources of information that enabled them to regularly (on average, but not every week) make a living betting on sports. This was back in the days before the internet, when information was much more scarce than it nowadays.

Then there’s sad cases like Pete Rose, or more recently former NBA referee Tim Donaghy and their insider gambling issues. And Calvin Ayre, of Bodog, long ago banned from trading stocks and being chased by the US government now having accounts connected with Bodog being seized in the government’s attempt to catch up with him.

It’s a big business, with big money at stake. I used to think I had an edge with my stats, but not anymore. I have a much better edge with poker.

Edge or no edge, I’m still looking forward to the start of the new season. I guess, it has me on the edge of my seat.

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